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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.