Everyday Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The typical number of everyday killings each month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government data. But, public safety analysts have warned that murder data might not point to improved national safety.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President took the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had over these past months is very significant,” the President remarked, noting that in November the least amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly military operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central components of the President's security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety analysts warned that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is notably true in light of the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to accurately identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it could hide periods when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the daily average makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for major offenses, per official data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the country to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst concluded.