Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
